Assessment of the Impact of Strengthened Chinese Maritime Law Enforcement on Regional Shipping Security in the South China Sea

Abstract

The South China Sea is one of the world’s most important maritime transportation regions and serves as a critical space for ASEAN countries to participate in international trade and maintain supply chain stability. In recent years, as maritime territorial disputes in the South China Sea have continued, China has strengthened its coast guard capabilities and maritime law enforcement activities. Meanwhile, some claimant states, including the Philippines and Vietnam, have also enhanced their maritime enforcement capabilities and expanded security cooperation with external powers. The increasing presence of multiple actors has contributed to a more complex regional security environment.

Since 2026, maritime interactions surrounding disputed areas such as Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal have remained major regional concerns. China maintains that its activities constitute legitimate law enforcement operations aimed at safeguarding national sovereignty and maritime rights. The Philippines and some other countries, however, argue that these actions increase the risk of maritime confrontation. From the perspective of ASEAN countries, the impact of China’s strengthened maritime rights protection and law enforcement activities on shipping security is not primarily reflected in the disruption of international maritime routes, but rather in increased regional uncertainty, changing risk perceptions among commercial shipping actors, and greater pressure on maritime crisis management mechanisms.

At present, the South China Sea remains generally open to international navigation, and there has been no large-scale adjustment of commercial shipping routes due to maritime law enforcement activities. However, as the South China Sea connects East Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Indian Ocean, serving as a major corridor for energy transportation, global trade, and regional supply chains, prolonged maritime tensions could affect corporate risk assessments and regional economic confidence. Therefore, ASEAN countries are increasingly concerned about preventing maritime disputes from evolving into broader security challenges that could undermine regional economic development.

This paper examines the issue from an ASEAN perspective by analyzing the background of China’s strengthened maritime law enforcement activities, assessing the mechanisms through which they influence shipping security, evaluating future risk trends, and proposing policy recommendations to reduce risks through enhanced crisis management mechanisms, regional rule-building, and maritime cooperation.

Keywords: South China Sea; Maritime Security; Coast Guard Law Enforcement; ASEAN; Maritime Safety

I. Strategic Importance of Shipping Security in the South China Sea

The South China Sea, located between the Pacific and Indian Oceans, is a crucial component of Asia’s maritime transportation network. For ASEAN countries, it is not only a geographical maritime space but also an essential channel connecting regional economic systems.

ASEAN economies have long relied on international trade and maritime transportation. Countries such as Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, and the Philippines possess important ports and maritime industries, and their economic development is closely linked to a stable maritime environment. Against the backdrop of global supply chain restructuring, energy transportation security concerns, and industrial relocation, maintaining stable maritime routes has become a major regional priority.

From a security perspective, the South China Sea possesses multiple dimensions:

First, the South China Sea is an international shipping corridor.

A significant volume of global trade, including energy resources, container shipping, and bulk commodities, passes through this region. Maintaining freedom of navigation and transportation stability is fundamental to regional economic development.

Second, the South China Sea is an area of maritime sovereignty competition.

China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei all have varying degrees of maritime claims in the region. Disputes exist over islands and reefs, maritime boundaries, and resource development.

Third, the South China Sea is an important arena of major-power strategic competition.

In recent years, external powers such as the United States, Japan, and Australia have increased their military and security activities in the region, further linking South China Sea issues with broader strategic competition.

Therefore, for ASEAN countries, South China Sea security issues involve not only sovereignty disputes but also economic development, regional stability, and strategic autonomy.

II. Main Characteristics of China’s Strengthened Maritime Rights Protection and Law Enforcement Activities in the South China Sea

(1) The Coast Guard Has Become an Important Instrument for Protecting Maritime Interests

In recent years, China has gradually strengthened the development of its coast guard capabilities and has used coast guard patrols, maritime inspections, and maritime control measures to safeguard its maritime interests.

Compared with traditional military forces, coast guard operations possess a stronger law enforcement character. China emphasizes that its activities are conducted in accordance with domestic laws and the international legal framework, with the objective of safeguarding national sovereignty and maritime rights.

However, from the perspective of some ASEAN countries, the extensive use of coast guard forces has changed the nature of South China Sea disputes. Previously, these disputes were primarily expressed through diplomatic disagreements and legal debates, whereas in recent years they have increasingly involved direct interactions among maritime forces on the ground.

This transformation has increased the frequency of maritime encounters and raised the possibility of unexpected incidents.

(2) Maritime Law Enforcement Activities Have Become Increasingly Regularized

In recent years, China’s coast guard has maintained a relatively high level of activity in relevant maritime areas, particularly conducting regular patrols and enforcement operations in disputed waters.

The Philippines argues that Chinese coast guard activities restrict its maritime operational space and affect its resupply and enforcement operations. China, meanwhile, maintains that Philippine activities infringe upon China’s sovereignty and therefore require necessary countermeasures.

From the perspective of ASEAN as a whole, the key impact of these disputes lies not necessarily in individual incidents themselves, but in the accumulation of long-term security pressure.

If maritime confrontations become normalized, they may lead to:

· Increased encounters between maritime forces;

· Greater difficulty in crisis management;

· Changes in commercial actors’ assessments of regional risks.

(3) The South China Sea Issue Has Become Increasingly Intertwined with Major-Power Competition

In recent years, the United States has strengthened security cooperation with the Philippines, Japan, Australia, and other partners, emphasizing the importance of maintaining what it describes as “freedom of navigation.” China, however, argues that the involvement of external military forces has contributed to increased regional tensions.

ASEAN countries hold complex and diverse views regarding this issue.

Some countries believe that the involvement of external powers can contribute to maintaining a regional balance of power. However, others are concerned that intensifying major-power competition could weaken ASEAN centrality and transform the South China Sea into a frontline area of strategic rivalry.

From the perspective of shipping security, the greatest risk does not necessarily come from the actions of any single actor, but rather from the uncertainty created by the simultaneous expansion of activities by multiple actors.

III. The Impact of Strengthened Chinese Maritime Law Enforcement on Shipping Security

(1) Increased Pressure on Commercial Shipping Risk Assessments

At present, there is no publicly available evidence indicating that Chinese maritime law enforcement activities in the South China Sea have caused sustained disruptions to major international shipping routes. Commercial shipping operations in the region remain generally stable.

However, for shipping companies, changes in the security environment itself can influence operational decision-making.

Shipping enterprises typically monitor factors including:

· The possibility of maritime conflict;

· Stability of port operations;

· Safety risks faced by crews;

· Changes in insurance and operational costs.

When frequent maritime confrontations occur in a particular region, even without directly affecting navigation routes, they may increase companies’ risk management costs.

Therefore, the impact of increased Chinese coast guard activities on shipping security is primarily reflected in changes in risk perceptions rather than direct disruption of maritime transportation.

(2) Increased Risks of Maritime Miscalculation and Accidental Incidents

The most significant security concern in the current South China Sea situation is the risk of miscalculation caused by increasingly dense maritime activities.

With growing interactions among coast guard vessels, naval vessels, law enforcement ships, and civilian vessels, opportunities for direct encounters among maritime actors have increased.

In the absence of sufficient communication mechanisms, potential sources of risk include:

· Close-range encounters between vessels;

· Different interpretations of law enforcement activities;

· Insufficient information exchange;

· Escalation caused by domestic political pressures.

For ASEAN countries, a serious maritime incident could rapidly affect regional diplomatic relations and negatively influence the regional trade environment.

(3) Impact on Regional Supply Chain Security Expectations

ASEAN countries are highly dependent on international supply chains. Recent events, including the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the Red Sea shipping crisis, have demonstrated that security challenges can quickly transform into economic risks.

Although the South China Sea has not experienced a shipping crisis comparable to the Red Sea situation, prolonged tensions could affect business confidence.

Potential consequences include:

First, increased security management costs for enterprises.

Companies may need to invest more resources in risk monitoring, insurance arrangements, and contingency planning.

Second, reassessment of regional investment risks.

Investors may reconsider the security environment when making long-term investment decisions.

Third, greater uncertainty in energy and commodity transportation.

Although shipping routes remain operational, heightened tensions may increase uncertainty regarding future transportation conditions.

Therefore, for ASEAN countries, South China Sea security issues are fundamentally also issues of economic security.

IV. Security Perceptions of Major ASEAN Countries

(1) The Philippines: Greatest Concern Over Maritime Rights and Security Pressure

The Philippines is one of the ASEAN countries that has experienced the most frequent maritime interactions and disputes with China in recent years.

The Philippines argues that Chinese coast guard activities affect its maritime rights and has therefore strengthened security cooperation with countries such as the United States and Japan.

The Philippines’ policy priorities include:

· Enhancing maritime presence;

· Seeking international support;

· Protecting its position through diplomatic and legal approaches.

However, from a broader regional perspective, continued maritime friction between the Philippines and China has also increased uncertainty surrounding the South China Sea situation.

(2) Vietnam: Balancing Maritime Interests and Regional Stability

Vietnam is also concerned about maritime sovereignty issues in the South China Sea, but its policy approach places greater emphasis on maintaining balance.

On one hand, Vietnam has strengthened its maritime capabilities and seeks to protect its national interests. On the other hand, it also seeks to preserve economic cooperation with China.

Therefore, Vietnam generally supports reducing risks through diplomatic mechanisms and regional rules.

Vietnam’s approach reflects a broader ASEAN preference for maintaining strategic flexibility while avoiding excessive confrontation.

(3) Singapore: Emphasis on Freedom of Navigation and Regional Stability

Singapore is not a claimant state in the South China Sea disputes, but as one of the world’s most important maritime and logistics hubs, it attaches great importance to regional maritime security.

Singapore’s primary concerns include:

· The stability of international trade routes;

· Freedom of navigation;

· The effectiveness of international rules and norms.

Therefore, Singapore generally emphasizes that all parties should avoid actions that could escalate tensions and undermine regional stability.

From Singapore’s perspective, maintaining a predictable and stable maritime environment is essential not only for Southeast Asian security but also for global trade connectivity.

(4) Malaysia and Indonesia: Preventing Security Issues from Undermining Economic Cooperation

Malaysia and Indonesia are also concerned about developments in the South China Sea, but their policy priorities focus more heavily on economic development and regional stability.

Both countries seek to safeguard their maritime interests while avoiding the transformation of South China Sea disputes into a major obstacle to regional cooperation.

Malaysia has generally adopted a cautious approach, combining the protection of maritime interests with continued economic engagement with China and other regional partners.

Indonesia, although not a formal claimant in most South China Sea disputes, has expressed concerns regarding maritime rights and resource activities around the North Natuna Sea area. At the same time, Indonesia continues to emphasize ASEAN mechanisms and regional dialogue as ways to manage tensions.

V. Future Risk Trends for South China Sea Shipping Security

(1) Low-Intensity but High-Frequency Maritime Frictions Are Likely to Continue

The most probable future scenario in the South China Sea is not a large-scale military conflict, but rather continued interactions and confrontations among coast guard and maritime enforcement forces.

Although such a situation remains manageable, prolonged maritime friction may gradually increase the probability of accidents and unintended escalation.

Frequent encounters between maritime forces may create a security environment characterized by:

· Persistent uncertainty;

· Higher operational risks;

· Greater demand for crisis management mechanisms.

(2) The Impact on Shipping Will Mainly Appear Through Indirect Risks

In the future, the influence of South China Sea tensions on shipping security is likely to be reflected mainly through indirect effects, including:

· Higher corporate risk assessments;

· Potential changes in insurance costs;

· Adjustments in investment confidence.

Rather than causing a complete closure of maritime routes, continued tensions are more likely to increase uncertainty in business operations and regional economic planning.

The South China Sea is therefore unlikely to experience immediate large-scale disruption of international navigation under normal circumstances, but prolonged instability could gradually affect economic expectations.

(3) Major-Power Competition Will Remain a Key Variable

Strategic interactions among China, the United States, and other regional actors will continue to shape the security environment in the South China Sea.

If strategic competition intensifies further, ASEAN countries may face greater challenges in balancing:

· Security cooperation with external partners;

· Regional stability;

· ASEAN strategic autonomy.

Maintaining ASEAN centrality will therefore remain an important challenge for regional diplomacy.

VI. Policy Recommendations

(1) Improve Regional Maritime Crisis Management Mechanisms

ASEAN countries should promote the establishment of more stable maritime communication mechanisms, including:

· Coast guard hotlines;

· Emergency communication channels;

· Maritime incident notification systems.

Reducing the risk of miscalculation is one of the most effective ways to enhance shipping security.

Effective crisis management mechanisms can prevent individual maritime incidents from escalating into broader diplomatic or security crises.

(2) Promote Progress on the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (COC)

The Code of Conduct in the South China Sea cannot resolve all sovereignty disputes; however, it can provide a framework for regulating behavior and reducing risks.

ASEAN should continue supporting negotiations and encourage all parties to improve regional rule-based mechanisms.

A clearer set of behavioral expectations would contribute to greater predictability and stability in the maritime environment.

(3) Strengthen Maritime Security and Shipping Cooperation

ASEAN countries can enhance regional resilience through cooperation in areas including:

· Maritime information sharing;

· Port security cooperation;

· Shipping risk assessments;

· Maritime emergency response capabilities.

Such cooperation would improve the region’s collective ability to respond to potential disruptions.

Conclusion

From the perspective of ASEAN countries, China’s strengthened maritime rights protection and law enforcement activities in the South China Sea have had certain impacts on regional shipping security. However, these impacts are currently reflected mainly in a more complex security environment and increased risk perceptions rather than direct disruption of the international shipping system.

The core challenges facing South China Sea shipping security arise from the combined effects of increased maritime activities, intensified major-power strategic competition, and insufficient regional crisis management mechanisms.

For ASEAN countries, the future challenge lies in balancing national interests, economic development, and regional stability. Through institutionalized cooperation, enhanced rule-building, and improved risk management mechanisms, regional countries can reduce the possibility of miscalculation and ensure that the South China Sea continues to serve as a vital maritime corridor supporting Asia’s economic development.